More than half of Utah's likely voters oppose Amendment B, a Noble Predictive Insights poll released Oct. 29 found.

The measure trails by 22 points. Fifty-six percent of likely voters said they would vote no, while 34% said yes and 10% were undecided. The poll was conducted Oct. 26-27 and surveyed 527 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.27 percentage points.

The shift is steep. A poll by the same firm in early September found only 21% of voters opposed the amendment, while about half supported it, The Salt Lake Tribune reported.

Amendment B would require at least 60% voter approval for citizen-led ballot initiatives that create or raise taxes, replacing the current simple-majority threshold. Every Cottonwood Heights and Holladay voter will see the measure on their ballot Tuesday, Nov. 3.

Cottonwood Heights mayor opposes measure

Cottonwood Heights Mayor Gay Lynn Bennion is among a group of local elected leaders who co-signed an op-ed in the Deseret News opposing the amendment. The Oct. 19 piece, written collectively by mayors, city council members and school board members from across Utah, argued the measure would weaken citizens' power to pass ballot initiatives.

The op-ed stated that Amendment B "aims to fundamentally change how Utah operates by making it significantly harder to pass citizen initiatives." The group wrote that under the proposed rules, "vital measures like Medicaid Expansion might never have passed."

A disclaimer on the op-ed stated the opinions were those of the individual signatories, not statements on behalf of their government entities.

Opposition crosses party lines

Democrats oppose the measure 82% to 11%, independents oppose it 58% to 29%, and Republicans oppose it 48% to 42%, according to the poll.

"Amendment B has a coalition problem," Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights, said. "Democrats and Independents oppose it, and even Republicans are more likely to vote no than yes."

Millions spent on both sides

The poll shift comes after a multimillion-dollar ad campaign. Utahns Protecting Our Constitution, the group working to defeat Amendment B, spent more than $3 million on mailers, radio, television and social media ads, according to the Tribune. More than half of that money came from The Fairness Project, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit that does not disclose its donors.

On the other side, Americans for Prosperity spent about $100,000 supporting the amendment, according to Heather Andrews, the group's Utah director. Taxpayer Shield PAC, formed by the Utah Taxpayers Association, spent about $20,000.

Scott Cuthbertson, a spokesperson for the No on B campaign, told ABC4 that voters are looking beyond the text on their ballots and rethinking what the amendment would mean.

Robert Axson, chairman of the Utah Republican Party, told ABC4 he believes the shift in voter sentiment came from out-of-state money hoping to change policy in Utah.

Voters have until 8 p.m. Tuesday, Nov. 3, to return ballots to a county clerk dropbox or vote in person.