Great Salt Lake dust is costing the region an estimated $115.79 million a year in health expenses. Salt Lake County residents rank second in the state for modeled dust exposure, putting Cottonwood Heights and Holladay squarely in the impact zone.

A report released Tuesday, Sept. 15, by University of Utah researchers and the Wilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy puts hard dollar figures on the health toll from windblown lakebed dust. The Utah Division of Water Resources commissioned the study, titled "Options and Costs for Great Salt Lake Dust Control," as input for the Great Salt Lake Basin Integrated Plan.

Tooele County has the highest average modeled exposure. Salt Lake County is next.

What the dust is costing us

At the lake's modeled elevation of 4,192 feet, researchers estimate the dust drives roughly six premature deaths, 17,052 work-loss days and nearly 17,748 school absences each year across the region. If the lake drops to 4,183 feet, annual health costs climb to $133.67 million. Restoring it to the minimum healthy elevation of 4,198 feet would cut that figure to $73.39 million.

Through 2060, maintaining current lake conditions would pile up an estimated $5.79 billion in cumulative health costs. Restoring the lake to its minimum healthy elevation would lower that to $3.71 billion. Reaching the historical average elevation would cut the total to $1.89 billion.

The lake sat at 4,190 feet as of Sept. 1, according to ABC4's report on state reservoir conditions. That is 1.5 feet above the record low set in November 2022 and 8 feet below healthy levels. As of Sept. 4, more than 56% of the lakebed was exposed.

70 square miles of active hotspots

More than 800 square miles of lakebed have been exposed to potential wind erosion, according to the report. Researchers flagged 70 square miles as "active dust hotspots." Those hotspots could expand to 187 square miles if groundwater levels keep declining or protective surface crusts break down.

Engineered dust controls evaluated in the report include surface wetting, flooding, brine caps, managed vegetation, chemical suppressants, gravel and tillage. No single method works across the entire lakebed. Projected costs for treating the 70 square miles of hotspots range from $3.2 billion to more than $31 billion over 50 years. Per-square-mile costs range from roughly $3.3 million to $448 million depending on the technology and site, according to a Phys.org summary of the findings. If hotspots expand to 187 square miles, those costs could nearly triple.

What the report recommends

Kevin Perry, a University of Utah atmospheric sciences professor and the report's lead author, said the findings point toward a combined approach.

"We have an opportunity to be strategic about how we address Great Salt Lake dust," Perry said. "That means using better data to identify the highest-risk areas, protecting communities that face the greatest exposure, stabilizing the lake wherever we can, and reserving engineered controls for places where the evidence shows they are necessary."

Laura Vernon, Great Salt Lake Basin Planner at the Utah Division of Water Resources, said delivering water to the lake remains the most cost-effective dust strategy. She said the findings will shape long-term water management recommendations as the state finalizes the Basin Integrated Plan.

Under a healthy-lake scenario, models estimate average dust exposure in northern Utah would drop roughly 15% compared with a very-low-lake scenario, with reductions exceeding 50% for some communities near the shoreline.

The report also recommends completing the Utah Dust Observation and Research Network and stabilizing existing hotspots before they spread. No public comment deadline or adoption date for the Basin Integrated Plan has been announced.